According to @CryptoMichNL, BTC saw a brief CPI-led bounce followed by a sharp pullback, signaling fragile momentum in the current range, source: @CryptoMichNL. He identifies $88K as the decisive resistance that must break to revive upside momentum, making it the key level for breakout traders, source: @CryptoMichNL. He adds that the Bank of Japan decision is the week’s crucial macro catalyst and that despite the Nasdaq rallying and gold holding steady, BTC is sliding as traders fear a widely expected rate hike, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @BullTheoryio, the market assigns 98.4% odds to a 25 bps BOJ hike tomorrow, which would lift the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, Bitcoin fell 26% over the following 8 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.50% on Jan 24, 2025, Bitcoin declined 25% over 20 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, similar downside could occur around this decision, although past BOJ-driven BTC selloffs were followed by strong recoveries to new all-time highs, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025.

According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Treasury conducted a $12.5 billion buyback of its own debt, described by the source as the largest such buyback in its history, which the source indicates tends to push bond yields lower and ease financial conditions. According to @BullTheoryio, the Federal Reserve is also starting T-bill purchases today, which the source says will add liquidity to the system and support risk assets. According to @BullTheoryio, the main immediate risk is the Bank of Japan interest rate decision; if no rate hike occurs, the source expects this backdrop to potentially trigger a crypto Santa rally, providing tailwinds for BTC and ETH.

According to @cas_abbe, December has started red for Bitcoin and altcoins (source: @cas_abbe). The author notes that a red November has historically led to a red December, but recent patterns have failed, including a green September not delivering a green October (source: @cas_abbe). Direction this month will hinge on macro events such as US CPI, unemployment data, the FOMC meeting, the BOJ rate decision, and Chair Powell’s speech (source: @cas_abbe). For a green December, inflation needs to decline while unemployment remains high (source: @cas_abbe). The author adds that Powell turned hawkish at the last FOMC and triggered a market dump; if he is hawkish again there could be damage, though the downside may be less severe as markets focus on an expected announcement of the next Fed chair this month (source: @cas_abbe). Overall, the author still expects December could end green and sees Q1 as potentially positive for markets (source: @cas_abbe).